CONTECSI - International Conference on Information Systems and Technology Management - ISSN 2448-1041, 5º CONTECSI - International Conference on Information Systems and Technology Management

Tamanho da fonte: 
MODELO DE PREVISÃO DE DEMANDAS E GESTÃO DO ESTOQUE DE VACINAS
Mario Lucio de Oliveira Novaes, Antonio Augusto Gonçalves, David Sérgio Adães de Gouvêa, Vera Maria Medina Simonetti, Marina Magalhães Novaes

Última alteração: 2014-11-13

Resumo


To treat illnesses imply responsibilities to the public and private health sectors, underlining the importance of an effective health management design. The Brazilian health system, nowadays, focuses its actions on the treatment of illnesses, excusing discrete attention to its prevention. Preventive actions, compared with curative measures, imply minor costs and the vaccination is an important role in this scenario. Management vaccine supplies and its logistic process require specific measures, because of their intrinsic characteristics. The goal of this study is to investigate the applicability a forecast demand technique (the Exponential Smoothing Method) in this health sector, method already used in industry. The Exponential Smoothing Coefficient of the historical vaccine demand series studied was placed between 0,01 and 0,30, values also found in the literature; this observation indicates its availability on the immunization management design.

Palavras-chave


Vaccines; Management; Forecast; Exponential; Smoothing.